Experts may be unable to study permafrost due to sanctions imposed on Russia (Picture: PA)
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will ‘definitely’ hamper scientific efforts to undertake vital research on the climate crisis.
Experts have been studying the stability of one of the earth’s largest carbon sinks, permafrost in Siberia – but their research has now been indefinitely put on hold by sanctions placed on Russia.
Permafrost – the frozen ground that covers around 60% of Russian territory – is estimated to hold twice as much greenhouse gas as the atmosphere.
But if enough of it melts and releases vast quantities of carbon and methane, scientists believe the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C would be lost.
A team from Northumbria University, alongside Russian colleagues, had recently been awarded a grant from education foundation the Leverhulme Trust to continue their decades of research gathering rock formations from Siberian caves.
The rocks store a history of the global climate, and by studying them scientists can estimate when the permafrost last shifted into a thawing state and what temperatures were reached during previous warm periods.
It is feared a large-scale thaw will create a positive ‘feedback loop’, meaning the released greenhouse gases speed up global warming, and in turn quicken the disappearance of the remaining permafrost, releasing even more carbon.
Rock formations in Siberian caves could offer key clues to the climate crisis (Picture: PA)
Melting permafrost could release huge quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (Picture: PA)
Reliable data on this ‘tipping point’ is a vital clue that is largely missing from current climate modelling.
The University’s Dr Stuart Umbo explained: ‘Permafrost thaw isn’t just controlled by temperature – precipitation, seasonality and atmospheric patterns play a role too.
‘As these change, nobody really knows the impact it’ll have on permafrost thaw at regional scale. But we know there is a huge volume of carbon locked up in it.
‘When permafrost starts to thaw this carbon is going to be released into the atmosphere, but what the controls are, and when that thaw begins in earnest, is really uncertain.’
Scientists have been gathering samples but say much more work is needed (Picture: PA)
Permafrost is estimated to hold twice as much greenhouse gas as the atmosphere (Picture: PA)
The rock samples include cave deposits such as stalagmites and stalactites, which are all formed through carbonate build-up via dripping water.
‘If you have (cave rocks) forming in Siberia you must have thawed permafrost above your cave because you need dripping water’, Dr Umbo continued.
‘We take those formations and we can date them like you would with carbon dating, but instead of carbon we use uranium, thorium and lead, which are longer-lived elements.
‘If we know a stalagmite was forming at a particular period of time, we can say that we know the permafrost above the cave had thawed – that is the basis of our entire study.’
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Asked when the permafrost could reach the point of no return, Dr Umbo said: ‘If it does thaw it is going to take a long time to thaw, it’s not all suddenly going to go overnight, but potentially it could become irreversible in the next few decades, but nobody really knows.’
Some areas of the permafrost are already thawing, particularly in the far east of Siberia.
The team has been looking at caves close to the southern boundary, the area most vulnerable to climate change, and had hoped to build a map showing the effect on the permafrost from north to south in Russia.
But sanctions following the war in Ukraine mean it could be a long time before the team can return to Siberia.
Mr Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine during the final days of the team’s trip, and they were forced to travel home via Cairo after Europe shut its air space to Russian flights.
Russia-Ukraine war: Everything you need to know
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, the country has suffered widespread damages and loss of life amid a major bombing campaign.
Millions of Ukrainian refugees have fled, as cities face shortages of food, water, heat, and medicine – with the British public set to be asked to open their homes to Ukrainian refugees.
Countries have retaliated by imposing sanctions on Russia and oligarchs such as Roman Abramovich, while large companies like Disney, Starbucks, McDonald’s, and Coca-Cola have suspended business in the country.
However, despite these economic blows, Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t shown any signs of calling off the attack anytime soon, with a convoy moving closer to the capital Kyiv.
‘Next year we had planned to go further north and visit some caves several hundred kilometres north of where we had been – who knows whether that’s going to happen,’ Dr Umbo said.
‘It is a very understudied area, and there aren’t a huge number of people looking at it and we won’t be able to look at it again for quite a while, so it is going to hinder scientific research, definitely.’
Dr Sebastian Breitenbach, the scientist leading the research, added: ‘The development in Ukraine is a catastrophe not only for the people in Ukraine, but also for globally connected climate science.
‘Losing contact to a young generation of Russian scientists will hamper not only our research into permafrost, it will also lead to further isolation of Russia, and isolation is never a good thing for developing and intensifying democratic structures, knowledge exchange and mutual understanding.’
Permafrost is also found in Canada, northern China and Scandinavia, but by far the largest deposits are in Russia.
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